Post Flop Probabilities in Poker - Written by: Dave Colclough (2004-09-20 22:15:57)

The last couple of articles concerned pre-flop probabilities. These are most relevant to NLH tournament play. This is because most chip movement occurs pre-flop in NLH tourneys, whereas, with Limit Hold ‘em and Pot Limit Omaha, most of the action takes place post flop. The next couple of articles discuss post flop odds and probabilities. These are equally interesting to the NLH player, but they will have less opportunity and situations to take advantage of this knowledge.

Possibly the most useful probabilities are those surrounding a flush draw. If you hold two cards of the same suit, you will flop a made flush slightly less than 1% of the time. If you are all-in before the flop, the chances of completing your flush with all five cards are somewhere around 6%. More useful though is the situation when you flop four to your flush: two hearts in your hand with two hearts on the flop, or one heart in your hand with three on the flop.

Many NLH players will commit their whole stack heads up in this situation, but the odds say that really you shouldn’t. You will only complete the flush around 35% of the time. So if a player has moved all-in, in front of you, for a large bet of greater than pot size, the correct play is probably to pass. You are not getting good pot odds. You will often see players making bad calls in this situation. It is of course different if you move all-in first to speak. You may only win the pot a third of the time if someone calls, but of course you may win the pot 50% of the time, uncontested, if everyone should pass.

In Limit Hold ‘em of course, you will rarely win the pot uncontested, but the pot odds will be different. In many ways Limit Hold ‘em is much more complicated here. In a $2/$4 game, four players may have seen the flop. The player in front of you bets $2 on the flop, and you can easily justify the pot odds as you are now calling $2 against a $10 pot. However, there are variables to consider: how much more you may have to call to see the final two cards, and how much more can you win if you hit the flush. Firstly, a player may raise behind you and the original bettor may re-raise. Now you are risking $6 against $20. The odds aren’t as good but are still favourable. But of course, the flush may not arrive on the turn, and you may have to call another $4. Now the risk is $10 against $28, or possibly $10 against $24 if play becomes heads up. You are in fact still getting pot odds, but only just. The second variable is of course when you hit the flush, how much will you get paid? If the player will call a $4 bet on the end, or better still, a two bet situation may emerge, then you are of course reaping the real benefits of your draw. Flush draw flops are usually a profitable venture in Limit Hold ‘em.

Remembering all these situations and odds isn’t as hard as it initially looks. You will constantly hear players refer to ‘outs’. A flush draw is 9 outs. If you have an open ended straight draw, you have 8 outs. Most top players just count their outs, and know the probabilities of hitting these outs. Next weeks article will include the ‘outs’ table and further explanation.

Playable Hands Part 2 - Written by: Dave Colclough (2004-10-18 22:52:16)

As stated in the previous article, the following are suggested guidelines for an average 9 handed $2/$4 Limit Hold ‘em table, where it is neither an aggressive or very tight line up. Slight adjustments would have to be made if the game became too tight, and likewise if the game became a little wild.

Pocket Pairs were discussed in the previous article.

The following is advice for ’suited’ starting hands, i.e. both cards are of the same suit:

• AK - Play and raise at every opportunity in any position, only put the brakes on against tight opponents
• AQ - Play and raise in any position. Don’t re-raise
• AJ, A10, KQ - Play in any position. Raise in late position. Raise in the blinds heads up
• A9, A8, A7, KJ - Call in un-raised pots. Preferably in mid or late position. Only raise in the blinds heads up against weak opponents
• A5, A4, A3, A2, K10, K9, QJ, Q10, J10 - Only call in late position in un-raised pots. Pass in raised pots or in bad position. Only raise in the blinds heads up against weak opponents
• K8, K7, K6, K5, K4, K3, K2, Q9, Q8, J9, J8, T9, T8, T7, 98, 97 87, 86, 76, 75, 65, 64, 54 - Only call in late position in un-raised pots. Pass in raised pots or in bad position.
• Q7, Q6, Q5, Q4, Q3, Q2, J7, J6, J5, J4, J3, J2, T6, T5, T4, T3, T2, 96, 95, 94, 93, 92, 85, 84, 83, 82, 74, 73, 72, 63, 62, 53, 52, 43, 42, 32 - Pass these hands. They are unprofitable.

The following is advice for un-suited starting hands, i.e. both cards are of a different suit:

• AK, AQ - Play and raise in any position. Re-raise in late position.
• AJ, A10, KQ - Call in any position. Raise in late position if the pot is un-raised.
• KJ, A9, A8 - Call in any position in un-raised pots. Raise in the blinds heads up
• A7, A6, A5, A4, A3, A2, K10 - Pass in early and mid position. Call in late position. Raise in the blinds heads up
• QJ, Q10, Q9 ,J10 ,J9, T9, 98, 87 - Pass in early and mid position. Call in late position.
• K9, K8, K7, K6, K5, K4, K3, K2, Q8, Q7, Q6, Q5, Q4, Q3, Q2, J8, J7, J6, J5, J4, J3, J2, T8, T7, T6, T5, T4, T3, T2, 97, 96, 95, 94, 93, 92, 86, 85, 84, 83, 82, 76, 75, 74, 73, 72, 63, 62, 53, 52, 43, 42, 32 - Pass these hands. They are unprofitable.

Playable Poker Hands Part 1 - Written by: Dave Colclough (2004-10-12 18:19:38)

In an earlier article I suggested the sort of hands that you should, or should not be playing. In the next couple of articles I will deal with starting hands more specifically. As with all aspects of poker there really aren’t any specific rules, so the following is only a suggested guide. It is also more relevant to Limit Hold’em, where playing the correct cards will grind out a winning strategy most of the time, if your discipline can outlast the ‘luck rollercoaster’. In No Limit Hold’em it could be argued that you can play any cards if the position, state of the game, and depth of chips is great enough. Even in NLH though, it is probably best not to waiver too far from the following… unless your name is Gus Hansen or David Ulliot.

I’ll split the hand types into three: pocket pairs, suited cards and unsuited cards. The following suggestions are probably most suited to an average 9 handed $2/$4 table, where it is neither an aggressive, or very tight line up. Slight adjustments would have to be made if the game became too tight, and likewise if the game became a little wild.

Pocket Pairs and Limit Hold em.

• Aces, Kings, Queens - Play, raise and re-raise at every opportunity in any position, any amount of players. Don’t 4-bet Queens against very tight opponents
• Jacks, Tens, Nines - Play and raise in any position. Only re-raise in late position against 1 opponent. If there are three or four opponents after the flop, you will need to be holding an overpair or a set.
• Eights, Sevens - Play in un-raised pots. Only raise in heads up situations such as the blinds. Heads up, you are likely to win with just the pair of eights. Against two opponents or more, you need help on the flop.
• Sixes, Fives - Pass in early position to a raise. Pass in early position if there is likely to be a raise behind you. Call in late position, preferably against several opponents where you are getting a good return should you flop a set. Only raise in the blinds heads up against weak opponents.
• Fours, Threes and Twos - Pass in early position. Only play in pots where there are at least three opponents (e.g.two limpers and a big blind). Always try and avoid playing these hands unless you are last to act after the flop.

Slow playing to maximise value by Dave Colclough (2004-04-26 20:47:40)

Ok Folks,

So here I am at the 2004 World Series of Poker. Binion’s Horseshoe has been taken over by new owners… at long last. That is not the most obvious change that greeted me though. America has gone Poker mad, mad, mad. An astonishing 343 have just paid an amazing $25,000 to play the main event at the Bellagio. And yesterday I walked into Binions satelitte area and couldn’t believe my eyes. Last year there would have been maybe 3 or 4 tables running. This year there were 23 or 24 tables buzzing with excitement. Hordes and hordes of new players. God bless America, god bless the WPT on the discovery channel, and god bless Chris Moneymaker. This is Poker heaven!

I managed to win a seat for the $2000 No Limit Hold em event in a one table satelitte. I got lucky when I slow played pocket Kings catching both blinds who both flopped top pair. As an added bonus, I was given a poker lesson by a very attractive young lady with a large bosom. She explained how dangerous it was not to raise with Kings before the flop. Bless her! Anyway I tripled thru and managed to outlast the rest to gain a seat in the NLH event for a paltry $230.

It can be very annoying playing you play tournament poker and you have waited two hours to pick up a hand. You finally look down at a pair of Kings, raise 3 times the Big Blind and everyone passes. Doh!… So what is the correct thing to do?

In the majority of cases the correct thing is exactly that. If you raise 3 times the Big Blind with AJ in mid to late position, then you must raise 3 times the Big Blind with your Kings (regardless of position). That way your eagle eyed opponents wont be able to tell what cards you play. If everyone passes, it’s not the end of the world. At least you didn’t lose with them.

In the satellite I mentioned above, I picked up the Kings in first position in a 9 handed aggressive one table satellite. I figured if I flat called, someone in a later position would raise, and then I could re-raise and get all my chips in the middle before the flop. A cunning plan… that didn’t work. Everyone passed around to the blinds who smooth called. The flop came Jack high and they both decided they liked it. So it was just a matter of crossing my fingers and hoping neither had two pair.

In Limit Hold’em there is rarely any justification in slow playing big hands, especially in the lower limit games. If you have a pair a Kings I would recommend that you raise at every opportunity. The obvious reason is to make the pot as big as possible, so you win as much as possible. Another good reason though, is that you are better off playing against 1 or 2 opponents with your Kings than against the whole table. Less players will call 2 bets, and hopefully you wont lose the pot to anyone playing 5,6 of hearts. Post flop, the song remains the same. If it shows 3,7,J and your opponent bets, then raise him. Don’t get cute. If for example he has 10,J or J,K, and the next card comes an Ace. Although it doesn’t help either of you, it freezes the betting because it scares you both. And the pot that you win is that little bit smaller&

So as usual, I am being as contradictory as ever. But most of the time, it doesn’t pay to be too clever.

See you next week folks,

Dave

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Set Aside your Bankroll

Managing your bankroll whilst playing Poker is perhaps one of the most important, if not the most important aspect of your game strategy, especially if you are seriously interested in winning money on poker - or any other game for that matter. If you’ve set your sights on playing poker professionally, it is imperative that you manage your bankroll correctly and set aside a certain amount of money solely used for playing. This amount, the bankroll, must be managed in a mathematically sustainable manner in order for you to make it as a player.

Don’t Expect too Much

Give yourself room for bad luck. In poker, luck or chance are real factors, even if it is a game of skill. Bad luck sometimes seems to extend over very long periods of time, without it breaking an experienced player. We are of the opinion that good strategies money and bankroll management is also hugely important for Beginners; however, as soon as you have amassed a big enough bankroll - it becomes even more important to protect it. Do so by ensuring that you do not play for higher stakes than what is mathematically sustainable for your bankroll. Try not to bet to lose everything otherwise you’re starting from scratch again and play the ‘bad luck’ times with caution on your side.

Maximum Percentage for A Single Game

We would suggest using no more than 2 percent (2%) of your bankroll in any one single table or tournament - this may appear very conservative to some folks but especially for tournament players, we would not budge from a conservative standpoint. You may increase the percentage to about 5% if you only play Sit & Go or cash games, but if you play tournaments with large numbers of players, 2% is a safe and dependable sum.

Large internet Poker tournaments often have 500 or even 1500 participants and it becomes very easy, even for highly skilled poker players, to miss the money over fifty tournaments in a row. Many of the world’s top poker players have lost everything they own during the course of their careers on more than one occasion.

If you are having an very long bad luck period, you should always lower your stakes so that they are the same in relation to the bankroll. If the bankroll falls below a level where it is not worth very much to you, you can play for higher shares of the bankroll, but it always pays to be conservative. It is important to mention that conservative poker players have been able to live on playing and betting on poker for fifty years, with extremely modest bankrolls - this is because they are not tempted by the glamour of risking their entire bankroll to get rich in one night. It therefore pays to be conservative.

Lower the limits on Cashing Out

Remember to lower your stakes when cashing out. Many, otherwise sensible players, complain of ”the cash-out curse”, that they always seem to lose large amounts after cashing out, without considering the fact that their bankrolls are more sensitive to fluctuations if they do not lower their stakes when reducing their available bankroll.

Winning at Poker with a Conservative Bankroll

In the end, if you take this advice, you end up more a winner than if you approached your bankroll in a non-conservative manner and you’ll win more at Poker.

No Limit Hold’Em Poker

In No Limit Hold’Em, you can bet as much as you like from your stack. Instead of the fixed amounts, you can bet in limit. Aside from the fact that this affects the maths of how to calculate pot odds, it also affects the amount of information you can convey to the other players and how much information you get from them in return.

Strategy

In No Limit Hold’Em, it is important not to give away clues. How much you choose to bet is one way of giving away clues so attention to your betting amounts is strongly advised. Beginners tend to bet low with a bad hand and high with a good hand. Becoming a more experienced player in this games requires that you try to confuse your opponents with your bet amounts instead, experienced players actually do the opposite and bet low when they have a good hand and high with a bad hand. The best strategy however, is to give away as little information as possible with your bet amounts. Do just that by masking your bets and trying to standardize - bet consistently standard amounts as much as possible.

If you meet up with players who frequently call with the second-best hand, which is not a very good strategy at a no-limit game, place mid-sized bets when you hold a good hand.

If you meet players who often play hands that seem to be the second-best hand, there is a possibility that they are really cunning and good players who are really waiting for a very large pot. These players typically lose a lot of money in pots, but they also will buy a lot of pots and more noteworthy, win huge ones. These players have already read their opponents and would move to make a well-timed bet when the pot is large. Don’t let these players intimidate you when you’ve noticed that they make large bets or raises; instead, concentrate on your need to be able to play back at or re-raise on these players or call them down.

The Pre-Flop Raise

If you are the first player to act, a pre-flop raise usually consists of betting 3 times the big blind. For example, if Player X is 20, you raise 40, thus betting 60. You can then add one big blind per caller before you. So if two players called the big blind, you could bet 100 instead of 60.

It is important that you do this consistently, so that the other players do not get any help in trying to figure out what type of hand you are holding, aside from the fact that you think you have a hand which you feel is worth raising.

After the Flop

After the flop, you do not usually follow the same pattern, i.e. you don’t normally bet three times the pot every time you bet, because that would be too big a bet in relation to the value of the pot. However, players mostly bet amounts that are directly related to the value of the pot. If there is 200 in the pot and you have the highest pair with a good kicker, and want to stop someone calling you with a flush draw, it is usually correct to bet 200, i.e. the worth of the money in the pot. The three most common amounts to bet after the flop are 1/2 the pot size (x 0.5), the entire pot size (x 1) or twice the pot size (x 2), depending on what you want to achieve.

In a case example where you might have the highest two pairs, there’s a large pot and on the board are two suited cards, you would not want to give another player the chance of catching a flush. On those occasions it could be worth making a stand and betting two times the size of the pot.

However, as we advised earlier, when you post large bets, such as that which is two times the size of the pot, you would have given away some information about the value of your hand. The most common bet by far (after the flop) in No Limit Hold’Em is the amount in the pot, i.e. 100% of the pot value - a pot bet (aside from possibly all-in) .